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Sunday, January 03, 2010

My Thoughts on the 2012 GOP Presidential Field
First, the list: Palin, Jindal, Pawlenty, Barbour, Huckabee. I think only Huckabee has no shot, sorry to say. He's hated by vast portions of the electorate, and even the GOP primary electorate. No way he gets the fiscal wing or the "South Park Republicans." Bobby Jindal: Has a great shot, because he's positioned himself well against both the Democrats and the Bush Republicans. Weaknesses: He's Southern. The danger that we will become, or are a regional party is a real one. Obama will play on this for all it's worth. Ethnic bonus: Take the 'racist' card from Obama and the Dems. 'Historic' bonus as well. Palin: Beloved by the base, able to get moderate women/Clintonites, credible independent stance. It's hard for me to say a bad word about her. The legacy media's ability to slime her will further diminish, and the fact that they will try will only help her. Weaknesses: She needs to downplay the anti-intellectual air about her, and be far more prepared for the big stage. Pawlenty: Almost unknown to the general public, Pawlenty is a likable, able speaker who held his own against the Democrats in the People's Republic of Minnesota as governor. Strategically, he makes the most sense to A) avoid the Southernist charge and B) put the upper midwest back in play. His only weakness, his anonymity, is also a strength. Pawlenty-Jindal or Jindal-Pawlenty (or any Palin combination) just makes a frightening amount of sense. Barbour: Respected governor with executive and fundraising experience. Weakness: Southern and unknown to the wider public.One other comment: Jindal and Palin would be a superstar ticket, but the celebrity factor would be a minus here: no one here to be the understated one when one gets annoying/overexposed.Palin-Jindal Pawlenty, with maybe someone random like Frist or Romney thrown in. (I'll do the Dems later.)

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