I just don't want to watch any more debates; the stuff that matters is obviously the primary and caucus results, as well as (much more importantly) the speeches that follow these. All the candidates know that the people who matter will watch these. Did you realize that the basic cast of the 2008 race was set in January, after the Iowa Caucuses? Obama's speech was borderline incredible; I remember this. He set the tone and the terms; it was up to Senator Clinton to reset them. Though the battle for the delegates was rather close, (decided by party insiders known as "superdelegates") she lost every crucial contest.
This year, Republicans are the challengers. Each of the three top candidates--Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum--has claimed 1st place in a contest. What happens next will depend on the dynamic that emerges following the next vote in Florida. If various real-time reports are to be believed, Romney believes Gingrich to be his only real rival for the nomination. If he is correct, then attacking Gingrich directly in ads and debates successfully as he did in Iowa should return him to frontrunner status. If the voters in Florida size up the race as it has unfolded--that no one has emerged in a dominant position--then Romney is in much bigger trouble. The 31st of this month will be Florida's day. Following this, Maine and Nevada will vote on February 3rd. Expect wins for Romney there. His margin, however, will determine the significance. The next big day is February 7. Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri will all vote. Colorado is conservative with an independent streak; if Romney wins there, it says that the rebellion against his nomination is for naught. Minnesota trends liberal; expect a Romney win, although a strong Christian vote could boost Rick Santorum, who should enjoy a regional benefit as well. But my own state of Missouri is the big fish here. Missouri will tell us who has the best chance to win the nomination, since it is likely to be decided on "Super Tuesday," March 6. Missouri is non-binding, but it was the last stand for both Romney and Huckabee in 2008 versus John McCain.
This year, Republicans are the challengers. Each of the three top candidates--Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum--has claimed 1st place in a contest. What happens next will depend on the dynamic that emerges following the next vote in Florida. If various real-time reports are to be believed, Romney believes Gingrich to be his only real rival for the nomination. If he is correct, then attacking Gingrich directly in ads and debates successfully as he did in Iowa should return him to frontrunner status. If the voters in Florida size up the race as it has unfolded--that no one has emerged in a dominant position--then Romney is in much bigger trouble. The 31st of this month will be Florida's day. Following this, Maine and Nevada will vote on February 3rd. Expect wins for Romney there. His margin, however, will determine the significance. The next big day is February 7. Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri will all vote. Colorado is conservative with an independent streak; if Romney wins there, it says that the rebellion against his nomination is for naught. Minnesota trends liberal; expect a Romney win, although a strong Christian vote could boost Rick Santorum, who should enjoy a regional benefit as well. But my own state of Missouri is the big fish here. Missouri will tell us who has the best chance to win the nomination, since it is likely to be decided on "Super Tuesday," March 6. Missouri is non-binding, but it was the last stand for both Romney and Huckabee in 2008 versus John McCain.
Comments