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Election Update: The Obama lead is a lie. The average of the polls compiled by our friends at Real Clear Politics showing a national lead of roughly 3 points for the president is based on unrealistically favorable polls from Democratic-leaning firms AND job approval ratings of all adults and registered voters, not likely voters. Among those firms that only sample likely voters when asking about head-to-head and job approval Romney is ahead or tied. A sitting president will show a job approval above 49% among LIKELY voters if he is going to win, starting in late September. I can believe that President Obama leads in Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan; I DO NOT believe he actually leads in Ohio and Florida. Bush (2004) had a poll average lead of 6% at this point; it narrowed on Election Day, but a two-term president needs a lead; it shows the power of incumbency. An incumbent with a lead this small is going down hard. I'm willing to retire from predicting elections if I'm wrong. Romney will win.

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