Tuesday, February 09, 2016

New Hampshire Primary Thoughts

I have no idea what is about to happen. Marco Rubio had a bad moment in the debate the other night, as I'm sure you heard. But he finished strongly. Still, his hold on second place in New Hampshire appears to be tenuous. Bush and Kasich have risen, probably at Rubio's expense. Still, my instincts tell me that Trump's support is illusory, as in Iowa, and that Kasich or Rubio could win outright. In that scenario, a Kasich win isn't bad for him. Finishing behind Kasich and Bush would be a disaster. My prediction is a close third. A second place would be a huge victory, and signal his impending nomination. Yes, you read that right. A guy this conservative doesn't win New Hampshire. Nominees get beat by regional favorites and flukes all the time, if recent history is a guide. It does not seem reasonable that Kasich will get the momentum necessary to overwhelm Rubio. But Bush could. If Bush finishes second, he will smile, thank Rubio for the "youthful energy" he brought to the campaign, and stroll to the nomination, as he was supposed to do. The media loves these resurrection stories, and they'll be ready with them.

Ted Cruz will not be the nominee of the Republican Party. The voters may be angry, but they are in no mood to lose heroically. I'd say Goldwater '64, but Goldwater had class, a certain irascible, principled charm, not unlike Bernie Sanders. Ted Cruz has none of this.

Trump is planning his Trumpian exit. He won't go quietly, but he will go, and so much the better. 

1 comment:

Nathan said...

If Rubio is the nominee, I think the authentic pro-life vote might be Sanders. He's less dedicated to abortion than Clinton, and he wouldn't bust down doors and throw grenades at babies to get non-violent drug offenders like Rubio would. More importantly, Rubio and Clinton have the same foreign policy: keep stoking fear and killing innocent people to support violent Sunni dictatorships.

That said, I probably can't pull the lever for an abortion-supporter, so it may be time to sit one out, or go find a pro-life libertarian to vote for.