Tuesday, October 04, 2016

It Still Looks Like A Hillary Win To Me

Our friend Mitt Romney demonstrated the phenomenon of leading the national polling, but losing the race, because the state polls never shifted. Ironically, Trump partisans are citing national polls as evidence that Trump is winning, or will win. But the states that are toss-ups according to Real Clear Politics would have to break better than 3 out of 4 to Trump for him to win. Not likely. There is nothing real to indicate that Trump is broadly more liked than Romney was. For a bunch of close states to shift all in one direction, there would have to be a strong indicator that Trump is leading the national race. Not only is he not leading national polling in any discernible sense, he's lost ground. States don't shift first; the nation shifts, and then states realize they don't want to miss the party. Debates rarely change the fundamental tenor of a campaign, but they tend to reinforce earlier trends. He shouldn't have to fight for GA, and NC; these are GOP strongholds. The fact that Clinton may win there is indicative to me of a Democratic win in the manner of at least 2012. I don't see a great groundswell of support for a rebuke of the president, in favor of a nonsense-spewing neophyte. I'll acknowledge my bias here, in that stupidity is the most generous characterization I can give for what Trump says. And I was wrong about Romney winning. But Americans might still vote for someone they aren't overly fond of, if they believe he or she can do the job. Like Bush, '88, or Clinton, 1996. But if you're unlikeable and incompetent, you are doomed. It's over, and thank Heaven, at least until President Clinton starts doing the normal Clinton things.

I might be able to register mild disappointment when it occurs. Sorry, but not.

PA for the GOP is like a girl who flirts mercilessly with you, and then marries that guy you can't stand. Every 4 years. I'm not falling for it. I also believe that if Ohio votes for Trump, it indicates that it's losing its "bellwether" status, in the same way Missouri has. This is more likely than the idea that the solution to GOP presidential woes is to nominate a more crass, less intelligent, less humble version of Rudy Guiliani. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

I won't be shocked if Clinton flirts with 400 electoral votes. The only thing that would shock me is a Trump win.

No comments: