Skip to main content
Election Update: I was slightly concerned about my prediction when I woke up this morning to see that the Real Clear Politics polling average had shifted nationally to a lead of .7% for President Obama. I looked a little closer, and it doesn't pass the sniff test. It's being skewed by a Gallup poll of all adults, showing an absurd lead of +10 for Obama. First off, NEVER POLL ALL ADULTS. If they don't bother to register, no one of consequence cares what they think. Secondly, most other surveys show a range between +2 and -5. Most firms are over-sampling self-identified Democrats. Frankly, they always do this. People point it out (especially since Republicans win most presidential elections) and they keep doing it.

Eight years ago today, President Bush had a polling average lead of +6.5. It narrowed by election day, but he won by about 2 percentage points. This is what sitting presidents do. If they are in a strong position, this is evident pretty far out. There aren't many come-from-behind wins by challengers in these things; the president is either weak or strong. The electorate was uneasy and suspicious of President Bush, but Kerry never had a chance. And Bush was on the weaker side of re-elected incumbents. Bush's campaign acted like they were ahead, because they were. Would you say that the Obama team believes they are ahead and in control?

I really think the media are in for a rude surprise. They might even know this, which is why they have manufactured a convention bounce for Obama.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My Thoughts On The Harrison Butker Commencement Speech

Update: I read the whole thing. I’m sorry, but what a weirdo. I thought you [Tom Darrow, of Denver, CO] made a trenchant case for why lockdowns are bad, and I definitely appreciated it. But a graduation speech is *not* the place for that. Secondly, this is an august event. It always is. I would never address the President of the United States in this manner. Never. Even the previous president, though he deserves it, if anyone does. Thirdly, the affirmations of Catholic identity should be more general. He has no authority to propound with specificity on all matters of great consequence. It has all the hallmarks of a culture war broadside, and again, a layman shouldn’t speak like this. The respect and reverence due the clergy is *always due,* even if they are weak, and outright wrong. We just don’t brush them aside like corrupt Mafia dons, to make a point. Fourthly, I don’t know where anyone gets the idea that the TLM is how God demands to be worshipped. The Church doesn’t teach that. ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Dear Alyse

 Today, you’re 35. Or at least you would be, in this place. You probably know this, but we’re OK. Not great, but OK. We know you wouldn’t want us moping around and weeping all the time. We try not to. Actually, I guess part of the problem is that you didn’t know how much we loved you. And that you didn’t know how to love yourself. I hope you have gotten to Love by now. Not a place, but fills everything in every way. I’m not Him, but he probably said, “Dear daughter/sister, you have been terribly hard on yourself. Rest now, and be at peace.” Anyway, teaching is going well, and I tell the kids all about you. They all say you are pretty. I usually can keep the boys from saying something gross for a few seconds. Mom and I are going to the game tonight. And like 6 more times, before I go back to South Carolina. I have seen Nicky twice, but I myself haven’t seen your younger kids. Bob took pictures of the day we said goodbye, and we did a family picture at the Abbey. I literally almost a...
Post a Comment
Read more

A Friend I Once Had, And The Dogmatic Principle

 I once had a friend, a dear friend, who helped me with personal care needs in college. Reformed Presbyterian to the core. When I was a Reformed Presbyterian, I visited their church many times. We were close. I still consider his siblings my friends. (And siblings in the Lord.) Nevertheless, when I began to consider the claims of the Catholic Church to be the Church Christ founded, he took me out to breakfast. He implied--but never quite stated--that we would not be brothers, if I sought full communion with the Catholic Church. That came true; a couple years later, I called him on his birthday, as I'd done every year for close to ten of them. He didn't recognize my number, and it was the most strained, awkward phone call I have ever had. We haven't spoken since. We were close enough that I attended the rehearsal dinner for his wedding. His wife's uncle is a Catholic priest. I remember reading a blog post of theirs, that early in their relationship, she told him of the p...
Post a Comment
Read more