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Friday, September 07, 2012

Election Update: I was slightly concerned about my prediction when I woke up this morning to see that the Real Clear Politics polling average had shifted nationally to a lead of .7% for President Obama. I looked a little closer, and it doesn't pass the sniff test. It's being skewed by a Gallup poll of all adults, showing an absurd lead of +10 for Obama. First off, NEVER POLL ALL ADULTS. If they don't bother to register, no one of consequence cares what they think. Secondly, most other surveys show a range between +2 and -5. Most firms are over-sampling self-identified Democrats. Frankly, they always do this. People point it out (especially since Republicans win most presidential elections) and they keep doing it.

Eight years ago today, President Bush had a polling average lead of +6.5. It narrowed by election day, but he won by about 2 percentage points. This is what sitting presidents do. If they are in a strong position, this is evident pretty far out. There aren't many come-from-behind wins by challengers in these things; the president is either weak or strong. The electorate was uneasy and suspicious of President Bush, but Kerry never had a chance. And Bush was on the weaker side of re-elected incumbents. Bush's campaign acted like they were ahead, because they were. Would you say that the Obama team believes they are ahead and in control?

I really think the media are in for a rude surprise. They might even know this, which is why they have manufactured a convention bounce for Obama.

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