In simple terms, Biden is winning. The swing states favored any Democrat not named Hillary Clinton anyway, and Biden has a personal demographic ability to play on the newly-minted Trump turf of PA, WI, and MI. Again, Trump barely won these, up against the most unpopular candidate in US history. Unless Team Trump has a parade of surprises planned until election day, I don't see anything to dent Biden's baseline favorability. You'll notice Biden is near 48 percent in the poll average; that's where a sitting president ought to be.
On the other hand, Trump kind of sneaks up. If Team Biden got complacent, they might lose a tight race. But my gut feeling is, they aren't the complacent types. Biden has been overlooked many times; he knows the Trump move. I'm sure many people expected Biden to accept his laurels as Obama's VP, and go away. But he's done his bit for the party; he's done stepping aside.
The political scientist Rachel Bitecofer has gained more attention with her theory that the persuadable swing voter doesn't exist. The theory goes that elections turn on which aligned "independents" actually show up. She says that Democrat-aligned ones are going to show up, and I agree. In the Democratic primary, there was turnout very near 2008 levels. That was an easy Democratic win, you'll recall.
In the interest of humility, I remind you that I've been wrong twice in a row. I underestimated the power of incumbency to help Obama against Romney, and I overestimated Clinton's ability to turn out and hold Democrats. Here's why I'm right this time. First, no one takes Democrats from Joe Biden; second, Trump won 46 percent of the vote last time. If he does that again, he loses; and third, there is no reason to suppose Biden is polling better than voters he'll actually win. It should be easy; it could be a landslide. I guess we'll see!
On the other hand, Trump kind of sneaks up. If Team Biden got complacent, they might lose a tight race. But my gut feeling is, they aren't the complacent types. Biden has been overlooked many times; he knows the Trump move. I'm sure many people expected Biden to accept his laurels as Obama's VP, and go away. But he's done his bit for the party; he's done stepping aside.
The political scientist Rachel Bitecofer has gained more attention with her theory that the persuadable swing voter doesn't exist. The theory goes that elections turn on which aligned "independents" actually show up. She says that Democrat-aligned ones are going to show up, and I agree. In the Democratic primary, there was turnout very near 2008 levels. That was an easy Democratic win, you'll recall.
In the interest of humility, I remind you that I've been wrong twice in a row. I underestimated the power of incumbency to help Obama against Romney, and I overestimated Clinton's ability to turn out and hold Democrats. Here's why I'm right this time. First, no one takes Democrats from Joe Biden; second, Trump won 46 percent of the vote last time. If he does that again, he loses; and third, there is no reason to suppose Biden is polling better than voters he'll actually win. It should be easy; it could be a landslide. I guess we'll see!
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