We might even say we're mere hours away from beginning to know who will assume the office of president on January 20 of next year. I'll cut right to the chase: I think this is going to be a really big win for Joe Biden. Real Clear Politics has shown a very heavy right bias, in the including of sketchy online polls, and in delaying the release of live voter polls more favorable to Joe Biden. Even so, their national polling average shows the lead for Biden at 7.8%. Keep in mind that if that were to hold, it would be a bigger percentage margin than Barack Obama achieved in 2008. The state polls are tight nearly everywhere, but they show clear leads for Joe Biden. The upper Midwest probably will not make any presidential calls on the night of the election, but Biden's lead in states that Trump should absolutely easily hold in a reelection campaign indicates to me that the president is in real trouble. He achieved a popular vote percentage in 2016 of 46%. He's going to be nowhere near 46% nationwide on Tuesday. You may see a number closer to 43%, or even less.
I will be watching Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona. If any or all of these goes to Joe Biden, the game is over. I also believe that the president is chasing fools' gold in the upper Midwest of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. There is clear movement relative to 2016 toward Joe Biden by the voters who supported Trump in those states. Nor was the president's margin in those states large at all. Any loss of those voters spells doom for the 45th president's reelection campaign.
I originally said that the electoral college would be 340-198 in favor of Joe Biden. I absolutely stand by that, but do not be surprised if the upper bound is close to or beyond 400 electoral votes. This could be a thrashing that no one my age and younger has ever seen.
I do think that the president has a chance to retain Iowa, and Ohio, but the problem is, that he absolutely needs to retain those, even to make a respectable showing. In other words, the doubts about Joe Biden from some in the press during the primaries look almost unimaginably silly right now.
I hope for a happy day for both candidates of the major parties, but I know that only one will realize it. We pray earnestly for grace and wisdom to all four of the members of the tickets, especially blessings and safety upon their families. I pray for the safety of everyone involved in the election, that the virus would not harm anyone, and then everyone returns safely to their families.
And at the risk of presumption, I will congratulate the next president of the United States, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.