I basically agree with this analysis. Granted, in some sense, it accords with what I want. On the other hand, it does pretty well explain the data we are seeing now. One interesting measure of the mood before any election is the generic Congressional ballot. You should know that it almost always favors Democrats, if only slightly. It is also the case that a small lead for the Democrats (inside three points, for example) sometimes indicates a Republican victory brewing. Right now, the average of the Congressional ballot--which generally indicates voter mood--at Real Clear Politics shows a Democratic advantage of over eight points. That indicates a wave election, and we just had a wave election. The Republicans don't have House seats to lose. How bad could this get for the GOP? Let's be conservative, and say the Democrats flip 15 seats. That would give the Democrats 262 seats, to the Republican number of 166. Right at this moment, there are also six vacancies in the House. Let's say the parties split those. Then the majority would be 265-169, with one independent. That's an electoral disaster any way you slice it.
The generic Congressional ballot could always improve for the Republicans for the rest of the spring, through the summer, and into the fall. If it does, though, it will have to improve a lot.
Meanwhile, former Vice President Biden leads most polls in every swing state. And while a general election matchup poll doesn't tell you how the electoral college will go, swing state polls will. Could they change? Sure they could. However, the fact that the former vice president is polling so well indicates that casual observers have a positive opinion of him. This means that the president and his team will have to work extremely hard to damage Biden's image with the voters in a short amount of time. This would be easier for them to do if the American people generally liked President Trump. They do not. What I see is an electorate looking for a reason to abandon the incumbent.
One reason Republican voters and Trump supporters will be tempted to dismiss this analysis is because Hillary also lead in the polls. However, Hillary is a woman. She is the first woman who had a legitimate shot to win the presidency. She was the first female nominee by either major party. That's a prime situation for widespread lying to pollsters about whom one intends to support. Joe Biden is not a woman. No one has anything to gain by saying that they intend to vote for Joe Biden. I would tend to think that his polling numbers are accurate, unless the pollsters undercount his voters. I have also never seen Biden do dramatically worse than his polling numbers in a big election. Trump must dramatically improve, or he is toast. He may be toast anyway.
My official prediction for the electoral college is 340-198 for Biden.
I think the general messages of each campaign will be as follows. Trump will attempt to paint Biden as a radical socialist, beholden to the radicals in the Congress. We will hear Nancy Pelosi's name a lot. There will be a fair amount of ageism against Biden by the president. However, the reason this won't work is because Trump has shown signs of his own cognitive decline. If it comes down to two old guys who can't really hack it yelling at each other, the voters will choose the one they like better. It's a bit like Ali-Frazier III: it probably shouldn't have happened, but The Greatest still had the faster hands. The analogy will break down here, because Biden is Ali in this analogy.
Biden's messaging carries the most risk, because he has a left flank that despises Trump for his mere existence. Not every left-wing criticism of Trump will resonate even with the disgusted suburban women who will decide the election. The former vice president needs messaging along two tracks: one track for the base of his party, and the other track for those who would be ordinarily disinclined to vote for him, but who despise Trump. For these voters in the latter category, Biden needs to say, "I know you don't agree with me, but you'll get competence and stability." Biden can do a lot of this very subtly, by talking about his friend John McCain, and working profitably with the George W. Bush administration. In order to shore up his base, he should use Obama's name in connection with every single policy proposal he has, until the election is over. This will also inspire the Trump voters against him, but his base is bigger, and this is a base election.
The generic Congressional ballot could always improve for the Republicans for the rest of the spring, through the summer, and into the fall. If it does, though, it will have to improve a lot.
Meanwhile, former Vice President Biden leads most polls in every swing state. And while a general election matchup poll doesn't tell you how the electoral college will go, swing state polls will. Could they change? Sure they could. However, the fact that the former vice president is polling so well indicates that casual observers have a positive opinion of him. This means that the president and his team will have to work extremely hard to damage Biden's image with the voters in a short amount of time. This would be easier for them to do if the American people generally liked President Trump. They do not. What I see is an electorate looking for a reason to abandon the incumbent.
One reason Republican voters and Trump supporters will be tempted to dismiss this analysis is because Hillary also lead in the polls. However, Hillary is a woman. She is the first woman who had a legitimate shot to win the presidency. She was the first female nominee by either major party. That's a prime situation for widespread lying to pollsters about whom one intends to support. Joe Biden is not a woman. No one has anything to gain by saying that they intend to vote for Joe Biden. I would tend to think that his polling numbers are accurate, unless the pollsters undercount his voters. I have also never seen Biden do dramatically worse than his polling numbers in a big election. Trump must dramatically improve, or he is toast. He may be toast anyway.
My official prediction for the electoral college is 340-198 for Biden.
I think the general messages of each campaign will be as follows. Trump will attempt to paint Biden as a radical socialist, beholden to the radicals in the Congress. We will hear Nancy Pelosi's name a lot. There will be a fair amount of ageism against Biden by the president. However, the reason this won't work is because Trump has shown signs of his own cognitive decline. If it comes down to two old guys who can't really hack it yelling at each other, the voters will choose the one they like better. It's a bit like Ali-Frazier III: it probably shouldn't have happened, but The Greatest still had the faster hands. The analogy will break down here, because Biden is Ali in this analogy.
Biden's messaging carries the most risk, because he has a left flank that despises Trump for his mere existence. Not every left-wing criticism of Trump will resonate even with the disgusted suburban women who will decide the election. The former vice president needs messaging along two tracks: one track for the base of his party, and the other track for those who would be ordinarily disinclined to vote for him, but who despise Trump. For these voters in the latter category, Biden needs to say, "I know you don't agree with me, but you'll get competence and stability." Biden can do a lot of this very subtly, by talking about his friend John McCain, and working profitably with the George W. Bush administration. In order to shore up his base, he should use Obama's name in connection with every single policy proposal he has, until the election is over. This will also inspire the Trump voters against him, but his base is bigger, and this is a base election.
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