Election Update: The Obama lead is a lie. The average of the polls compiled by our friends at Real Clear Politics showing a national lead of roughly 3 points for the president is based on unrealistically favorable polls from Democratic-leaning firms AND job approval ratings of all adults and registered voters, not likely voters. Among those firms that only sample likely voters when asking about head-to-head and job approval Romney is ahead or tied. A sitting president will show a job approval above 49% among LIKELY voters if he is going to win, starting in late September. I can believe that President Obama leads in Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan; I DO NOT believe he actually leads in Ohio and Florida. Bush (2004) had a poll average lead of 6% at this point; it narrowed on Election Day, but a two-term president needs a lead; it shows the power of incumbency. An incumbent with a lead this small is going down hard. I'm willing to retire from predicting elections if I'm wrong. Romney will win.
I once had a friend, a dear friend, who helped me with personal care needs in college. Reformed Presbyterian to the core. When I was a Reformed Presbyterian, I visited their church many times. We were close. I still consider his siblings my friends. (And siblings in the Lord.) Nevertheless, when I began to consider the claims of the Catholic Church to be the Church Christ founded, he took me out to breakfast. He implied--but never quite stated--that we would not be brothers, if I sought full communion with the Catholic Church. That came true; a couple years later, I called him on his birthday, as I'd done every year for close to ten of them. He didn't recognize my number, and it was the most strained, awkward phone call I have ever had. We haven't spoken since. We were close enough that I attended the rehearsal dinner for his wedding. His wife's uncle is a Catholic priest. I remember reading a blog post of theirs, that early in their relationship, she told him of the p
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