I haven't watched the Republican National Convention yet; I don't really want to. I've made my election prediction; anything else would just clutter it up with emotional baggage. Nate Silver of the NYT may be a statistical genius, but he's smoking crack on this election. Romney is winning, I'm telling you. Silver has to make it look good for the liberals who read the Times, but this thing is over.
Do you realize that all the structural advantages were in Obama's favor last time? Anti-incumbent sentiment? Check. Once-in-a-generation candidate? Check. Nominating contest that divided the losing party? Check. (AKA, The Base Hates McCain) McCain would have had to cure cancer to win that election, AND financial crisis. Yes, they were comically inept, and McCain is an erratic, hotheaded putz. But all that means is that an almost certain loss turned into a trouncing.
Anyway, all the advantages are in favor of Romney this time. The only thing that could stop him was a failure to get his party behind him, and Santorum himself has been enthusiastic. Any lingering animosity dried up entirely with the Ryan pick. What a brilliant choice: Reinforce the main Romney campaign message AND get the Santorumites behind you! Sheesh, this guy is good. I'll try not to notice that he's a polytheist.
It is going to take an Akin-sized mistake by Romney to put Obama back in the Oval Office. It's not impossible for a man to overcome disadvantages like these, but Obama doesn't have the goods to do it. There have seldom been candidates as skilled as Mittens. He's like "Iceman" from Top Gun. By-the-book and waits for a mistake. The question is never whether the polls will narrow; they always do. The question is when, and by how much. When I saw how much strength Mitt Romney was showing in poll surveys in May, I knew Obama was in trouble. There has to be a reason, a narrative for a winning campaign, and there is no narrative for the Obama campaign. The history has been made; the cool points have been awarded. They've done plenty to torpedo what should be a big incumbency advantage. The GOP knows that Willard's only job is to assure the electorate that he's not nuts. And he's done that very well. The closest electoral scenario that I could come up with that made sense is 275-263 for Romney. Don't be at all surprised if he goes north of President Obama's total from last time of 336. You look at all the factors early on and say, "Who's got the advantage? Is there anything that could change it?" Not that I can see. If they have any dirt that Mittens literallly killed a guy, or drinks puppy shakes for breakfast, now would be the time. Otherwise, turn out the lights; the Faculty Lounge Cosby Presidency is over.
Do you realize that all the structural advantages were in Obama's favor last time? Anti-incumbent sentiment? Check. Once-in-a-generation candidate? Check. Nominating contest that divided the losing party? Check. (AKA, The Base Hates McCain) McCain would have had to cure cancer to win that election, AND financial crisis. Yes, they were comically inept, and McCain is an erratic, hotheaded putz. But all that means is that an almost certain loss turned into a trouncing.
Anyway, all the advantages are in favor of Romney this time. The only thing that could stop him was a failure to get his party behind him, and Santorum himself has been enthusiastic. Any lingering animosity dried up entirely with the Ryan pick. What a brilliant choice: Reinforce the main Romney campaign message AND get the Santorumites behind you! Sheesh, this guy is good. I'll try not to notice that he's a polytheist.
It is going to take an Akin-sized mistake by Romney to put Obama back in the Oval Office. It's not impossible for a man to overcome disadvantages like these, but Obama doesn't have the goods to do it. There have seldom been candidates as skilled as Mittens. He's like "Iceman" from Top Gun. By-the-book and waits for a mistake. The question is never whether the polls will narrow; they always do. The question is when, and by how much. When I saw how much strength Mitt Romney was showing in poll surveys in May, I knew Obama was in trouble. There has to be a reason, a narrative for a winning campaign, and there is no narrative for the Obama campaign. The history has been made; the cool points have been awarded. They've done plenty to torpedo what should be a big incumbency advantage. The GOP knows that Willard's only job is to assure the electorate that he's not nuts. And he's done that very well. The closest electoral scenario that I could come up with that made sense is 275-263 for Romney. Don't be at all surprised if he goes north of President Obama's total from last time of 336. You look at all the factors early on and say, "Who's got the advantage? Is there anything that could change it?" Not that I can see. If they have any dirt that Mittens literallly killed a guy, or drinks puppy shakes for breakfast, now would be the time. Otherwise, turn out the lights; the Faculty Lounge Cosby Presidency is over.
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