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Blue House, Red Senate

 Let’s get right to the point: I think Democrats are going to lose most of these “good chances” in red areas. Talarico will lose; Susan Collins will win in ME. I’m calling it 51-49, GOP. You need to be safely outside the margin of error as a Democrat, because loyal GOP voters 1. Don’t answer phone calls from pollsters; and 2. Will lie to a pollster’s face.

I have no idea why Democrats were ever so confident about the Senate. I don’t know what Nate Silver is thinking, either.

Some of these pollsters must literally do the polls to cheer up Democratic partisans; I have no other reasonable explanation for what I see. 

We need to talk about margin of error: if it’s above 4, it’s a complete garbage poll. This isn’t North Korea; our elections are tight, and they should be.

Good rule of thumb: Add 3 points to every Republican in a poll. If you’re connected to the Democrat in some way and you still feel good about the outcome, fair enough.

By way of self-defense, I will tell you that I have not voted GOP for any office in 14 years. Frankly, I have no immediate plans to resume doing so.

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