It's July now; we'll see if I make it all the way through November with my sanity intact. [Unlikely.--ed.] But one of the fun things about November is the Presidential election. I told the immortal Bryan Cross that I usually make my prediction by July. Without further ado:
The winner of the 2012 presidential election will be...Mitt Romney.
What I'm seeing: A dispirited core of Obama voters, namely blacks and liberals, a Romney camp certain to gain strength from primary opponents still to come on board, polls that are not accurate, which hide the depth of Obama's weakness, and no compelling reason or argument to return the incumbent to power. I would have been highly discouraged by polls earlier showing Obama doing well in GOP states like CO and NC if I were in the Romney camp, but I did some digging to find that those polls are taken of all adults, not registered or likely voters. Thus, the RCP polling average is skewed in all those states by the snap impressions of people unlikely to vote. Taking those out reflects a much different picture. Overall, the president is barely above 47 percent approval at this time in our process, which suggests an incumbent in a huge amount of trouble.
Obama was a phenomenon in 2008, winning GOP stalwarts like Indiana and Virginia. Unpopular incumbent, historic moment, excellent campaign. But no one reads those results as some sign of a shifting paradigm; they reflect the moment.
I have not followed the day-to-day closely, but I'm listening for a narrative that will stick. Obama's 'outsourcing' ads are not likely to win it all for him. Protectionism in trade doesn't win elections. If they are already painting Romney as a super-villain in July, this campaign will sound shrill and stale by October. They're not acting like a two-term team; I don't sense the strength that I sensed in 2004, the last time we had an incumbent president. Romney's only work in this campaign will be to assure the voters he's a safe bet; they are ready and willing to vote Obama out. My advice to Obama: (if I were giving it) less publicity, more likable surrogates (not you, in other words) and hope something truly heinous in terms of gaffes or biography emerges from Romney.
I have to be honest here: This could be a huge Romney win. The press does their duty to present to us that this will be a nail-biter, but all the signs are here for a convincing win for the challenger.
The winner of the 2012 presidential election will be...Mitt Romney.
What I'm seeing: A dispirited core of Obama voters, namely blacks and liberals, a Romney camp certain to gain strength from primary opponents still to come on board, polls that are not accurate, which hide the depth of Obama's weakness, and no compelling reason or argument to return the incumbent to power. I would have been highly discouraged by polls earlier showing Obama doing well in GOP states like CO and NC if I were in the Romney camp, but I did some digging to find that those polls are taken of all adults, not registered or likely voters. Thus, the RCP polling average is skewed in all those states by the snap impressions of people unlikely to vote. Taking those out reflects a much different picture. Overall, the president is barely above 47 percent approval at this time in our process, which suggests an incumbent in a huge amount of trouble.
Obama was a phenomenon in 2008, winning GOP stalwarts like Indiana and Virginia. Unpopular incumbent, historic moment, excellent campaign. But no one reads those results as some sign of a shifting paradigm; they reflect the moment.
I have not followed the day-to-day closely, but I'm listening for a narrative that will stick. Obama's 'outsourcing' ads are not likely to win it all for him. Protectionism in trade doesn't win elections. If they are already painting Romney as a super-villain in July, this campaign will sound shrill and stale by October. They're not acting like a two-term team; I don't sense the strength that I sensed in 2004, the last time we had an incumbent president. Romney's only work in this campaign will be to assure the voters he's a safe bet; they are ready and willing to vote Obama out. My advice to Obama: (if I were giving it) less publicity, more likable surrogates (not you, in other words) and hope something truly heinous in terms of gaffes or biography emerges from Romney.
I have to be honest here: This could be a huge Romney win. The press does their duty to present to us that this will be a nail-biter, but all the signs are here for a convincing win for the challenger.
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